12/27/2022 0 Comments Catlight jenkins(c) Global LEPS scores of 1STEP CAT (light solid) and 2STEP CAT (heavy solid). (b) Heavy solid: 1STEP REG using all seasons together to train the regression coefficients light dashed: 1STEP REG using the same seasonal rules for training data as in (a) light solid: 1STEP REG using only one season for training regression coefficients, the same season as the predictand season dotted: CCA. (a) Heavy solid: 2STEP COM heavy dashed: 1STEP COM light solid:2STEP REG light dashed: 1STEP REG dotted: CCA. Seasonal march of the skill of the zero lead time prediction of SATs over North America, obtained from various models. The stations are indicated by dots on the map (a) B/N separators, (b) N/A separators. Geographical distribution of SAT tercile separators for the JFM season, once the seasonal linear trend is removed. Dashed curve: same as heavy solid but without score correction. For this curve, scores at stations that were negative are corrected (see text). Heavy solid curve: what we obtained by reproducing exactly the same experiment but with different stations (105). This curve was obtained from 59 stations and a slightly different SST cells set as ours. Light solid curve: the curve exactly borrowed from Barnston. Skills are estimated using the same cross-validation/seasonal technique of Barnston (1994). The months along the abscissa indicate the final months of the target predictand seasons. stations at a lead time of 1 month as in Barnston (1994 cf. Seasonal march of the CCA skill for seasonal forecasts of 105 SAT U.S.
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